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Game Theory for ToDo List

Stop Guessing, Start Ranking: How I Used Game Theory to Build a "Utility-First" Task Manager

Game Theory Excel Sheet Template

We all have a task list. And we all face the same paralyzing question every morning: "What's the most important thing to work on right now?"

Is it the massive, long-term project (like "PhD Research")? Is it the urgent, nagging task (like "Pay credit card bill")? Is it the quick-win (like "Get an Oil Change")? Is it the one you really don't want to do (like "Organize Receipts")?

The problem is that our brains aren't built to weigh all these factors simultaneously. We tend to follow a "Loudest-First" (urgency) or "Easiest-First" (procrastination) model.

But what if we could apply a rational, economic model? This is where game theory comes in. We can build a system that acts as our "rational player," sorting our tasks not by what's loudest, but by what gives us the highest possible "Utility per Hour."

I built a model to do just that.

Here's how it works:

The Core Concept: The "Task Utility Index" (TUI)

In game theory, "utility" is the payoff a player receives. Our "game" is to maximize our life's utility against the "opponent" of limited time.

The core idea is simple: every task has a Payoff (the value of getting it done) and a Cost (the time it takes). The best task to do is the one with the most efficient score.

TUI Score = $\frac{Total Payoff}{Total Cost}$

A high score means a massive return on your most valuable asset: your time. To make this work, we have to quantify that "Payoff." After several iterations, I found the payoff is a product of three key factors:

Inherent Value: How important is this to my life goals?

Temporal Value: How much time-pressure is on this task?

Psychological Value: What is the mental "relief" of getting this done?

This led to my final, comprehensive formula.

The Final Formula (The "Engine")

The Task Utility Index (TUI) is calculated for every task on the list:

TUI = $\frac{(Inherent Value) X (Temporal Value) X (Psychological Value)}{Cost}$

Which, in our spreadsheet, translates to:

=(([@W]*[@F])*([@U]+[@D])*[@Dr])/[@C]

Let's break down each component.

1. The Cost: C = MAX([Time (hrs)], 0.25)

This is the denominator. It's the time_to_complete in hours. We use a MAX(time, 0.25) function to ensure that tiny 5-minute tasks still have a cost, which properly rewards "quick wins" without breaking the math.

2. The Payoff (Part 1): Inherent Value (W * F)

W (Weight): This is the base importance, looked up from a Weights table. It answers: "How much do I value 'Health', 'Financial', or 'Academic' tasks?" This is your primary personal "weighting."

F (Frequency): This is a multiplier for recurring tasks. A monthly or daily task gets a higher F value because it's a "maintenance" habit. Its value isn't just in the task itself, but in preventing future problems.

3. The Payoff (Part 2): Temporal Value (U + D)

U (Urgency): This is the subjective "how hot does it feel?" score (low, medium, high).

D (Due Date): This is the objective time pressure. A complex IF formula checks the due date against TODAY() and assigns a score that spikes as the deadline approaches (e.a., 0 for >14 days, 3 for <7 days, 10 for overdue).

4. The Payoff (Part 3): Psychological Value (Dr)

Dr (Dread): This is our "Eat the Frog" multiplier. It quantifies the psychological cost of procrastination. A task you dread gives you a significant "relief" payoff when completed. By assigning a Dread level (Low, Medium, High), we multiply the task's entire payoff, pushing those dreaded-but-important tasks up the list.

From "TUI" to "Rank": Making it Scannable

The TUI scores are great (e.g., 42, 37.5, 18.75), but they aren't intuitive. To make the list instantly actionable, we normalize all scores to a 0-100 scale using a Min-Max Normalization formula.

Rank = 100 * ([@TUI] - MIN([TUI])) / (MAX([TUI]) - MIN([TUI]))

The task with the highest TUI score always gets a 100. The lowest gets a 0. Everything else is scaled in between. Now, you just sort your list by "Rank" from largest to smallest.

Strategic Insights: What The Model Teaches

This model doesn't just give you a list; it gives you strategic insights.

It loves "Quick Wins." The "Oil Change" task (TUI: 37.5) ranked #2, not because it was the most important, but because it had a tiny cost (C=0.5) and good urgency. The model says: "Get this 30-minute task done as it's the most efficient use of your next half-hour."

It values "Maintenance." The "Update Budget Sheet" task (TUI: 42) ranked #1. Why? Because it was Financial (High W) and monthly (High F). The model recognizes that consistent habits are a high-utility investment.

It solves the "Long-Term Project" Dilemma. My "PhD Research" and "Publication" tasks sank to the bottom (Rank: ~5 and 0). The model isn't saying they're unimportant; it's saying a 4- or 6-hour, low-urgency task is an inefficient block of time. The strategy is to "slice the task." Don't log "PhD Research" (Cost: 4). Log "Review Chapter 1" (Cost: 1.5). This lowers the cost, dramatically raises the TUI, and makes the project "winnable" in the daily ranking.

This system turns a chaotic list of "stuff-to-do" into a rational, optimized strategy, ensuring that whatever I work on, I'm making the best possible "move" with my time.